Baseball

NL West 2023 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

By Master Clone / February 22, 2023

Why trouble poring via reams of statistics earlier than predicting the winner of the Nationwide League’s Western Division? Why not simply decide the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Why not, certainly?

The Dodgers have completed first within the NL West 9 instances previously 10 seasons. Their solely failure hardly deserves to be labeled as such. Los Angeles gained the spectacular whole of 106 video games in 2021, although the San Francisco Giants went one higher with 107 victories.

So, sure, I’m keen to acknowledge this historic crucial by putting in the Dodgers because the divisional favourite once more in 2023.

However there’s extra behind my verdict than a easy adherence to precedent. My predictions are primarily based on comparisons of the NL West’s present golf equipment with the three-year data of 1,258 groups from the span between 1976 and 2020, higher referred to as the period of free company. (Click on right here to be taught extra about my prediction system.)

The projected standings are decided by the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every divisional squad, the 50 groups from the previous that almost all intently resembled every present-day squad.

Thirty-four of the Dodgers’ 50 CMs made it to the playoffs of their subsequent seasons, simply one of the best report for anyone within the NL West. The runners-up are San Francisco (16 qualifiers) and the San Diego Padres (12), adopted by the Arizona Diamondbacks with eight playoff contestants and the Colorado Rockies with solely three CMs qualifying for postseason play.

That leaves us with these projected standings for the Nationwide League West in 2023:

  • 1. Dodgers

  • 2. Giants

  • 3. Padres

  • 4. Diamondbacks

  • 5. Rockies

However wait a minute, you say. The Padres have spent a lot cash in current months that they appear to have elevated themselves to elite standing. Simply take into account a few of their acquisitions since final August: outfielder Juan Soto, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, designated hitter Nelson Cruz, and pitchers Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha.

A number of consultants have picked the Padres to win the divisional crown this 12 months, which might be their first NL West crown since 2006. It’s a logical selection, although my system is sticking stubbornly with the Dodgers. We’ll see who’s proper in October.

Scroll beneath to see breakdowns for all 5 NL West golf equipment. The primary entry for every workforce is its 2022 report, together with postseason abbreviations of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Subsequent are the subsequent-season outcomes for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (primarily based on my 2020-2022 evaluation), adopted by an inventory of the highest 5 CMs and their next-year data.

Extra particulars may be discovered within the newly printed Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.

A brand new installment will arrive in your e-mail every Tuesday and Friday morning

  • 2022 report: 111-51 (.685, P)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 15 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 34 of fifty

  • CM #1: Braves (1997-1999); 2000 report: 95-67 (.586, P)

  • CM #2: Dodgers (2017-2019); 2020 report: 43-17 (.717, WLP)

  • CM #3: Braves (1996-1998); 1999 report: 103-59 (.636, LP)

  • CM #4: Mets (1986-1988); 1989 report: 87-75 (.537)

  • CM #5: Braves (1995-1997); 1998 report: 106-56 (.654, P)

  • 2022 report: 81-81 (.500)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 16 of fifty

  • CM #1: Marlins (2002-2004); 2005 report: 83-79 (.512)

  • CM #2: Giants (2009-2011); 2012 report: 94-68 (.580, WLP)

  • CM #3: Giants (1988-1990); 1991 report: 75-87 (.463)

  • CM #4: Royals (1979-1981); 1982 report: 90-72 (.556)

  • CM #5: Phillies (1979-1981); 1982 report: 89-73 (.549)

  • 2022 report: 89-73 (.549, P)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 12 of fifty

  • CM #1: Dodgers (2009-2011); 2012 report: 86-76 (.531)

  • CM #2: Orioles (2014-2016); 2017 report: 75-87 (.463)

  • CM #3: White Sox (2000-2002); 2003 report: 86-76 (.531)

  • CM #4: Dodgers (1988-1990); 1991 report: 93-69 (.574)

  • CM #5: Diamondbacks (2017-2019); 2020 report: 25-35 (.417)

Learn in regards to the Corridor of Fame’s checkered historical past (and unsure future)

Learn more about the book

  • 2022 report: 74-88 (.457)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

  • CM #1: Expos (1975-1977); 1978 report: 76-86 (.469)

  • CM #2: Marlins (2012-2014); 2015 report: 71-91 (.438)

  • CM #3: Twins (1994-1996); 1997 report: 68-94 (.420)

  • CM #4: Blue Jays (1980-1982); 1983 report: 89-73 (.549)

  • CM #5: Astros (1990-1992); 1993 report: 85-77 (.525)

  • 2022 report: 68-94 (.420)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

  • CM #1: Rockies (2012-2014); 2015 report: 68-94 (.420)

  • CM #2: Twins (1995-1997); 1998 report: 70-92 (.432)

  • CM #3: White Sox (1978-1980); 1981 report: 54-52 (.509)

  • CM #4: Rockies (2002-2004); 2005 report: 67-95 (.414)

  • CM #5: White Sox (1986-1988); 1989 report: 69-92 (.429)

A whole rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to come back

Learn more about the book

Tags: , , , ,

You may also like