Baseball

The Worst Sequence – by G. Scott Thomas

By Master Clone / March 20, 2023

Wouldn’t it’s nice — or, a minimum of, fascinating — if the worst groups within the main leagues squared off within the postseason?

It could possibly be finished with baseball’s acquainted playoff construction, matching not the highest six golf equipment in every league, however the backside six, albeit with one unusual twist. Our goal can be to establish probably the most incompetent crew within the majors, so the loser of every collection — not the winner — would advance to the subsequent spherical.

This bizarre course of would culminate in an inverse World Sequence — the Worst Sequence, if you’ll.

Now we have a little bit of slack time earlier than the 2023 season will get underway, so I made a decision to simulate a postseason event of my predicted backside dwellers.

Beneath are the six American League opponents, with the worst crew seeded first. Every is adopted by its projected crew rating (TS) for 2023.

  • 1. Detroit Tigers, TS 33.620

  • 2. Oakland Athletics, TS 34.955

  • 3. Kansas Metropolis Royals, TS 36.278

  • 4. Texas Rangers, TS 40.733

  • 5. Los Angeles Angels, TS 41.277

  • 6. Baltimore Orioles, TS 42.841

And the next are the six Nationwide League seeds.

  • 1. Washington Nationals, TS 30.760

  • 2. Pittsburgh Pirates, TS 34.173

  • 3. Cincinnati Reds, TS 36.298

  • 4. Colorado Rockies, TS 36.797

  • 5. Miami Marlins, TS 39.116

  • 6. Chicago Cubs, TS 41.336

The 2 worst groups in every league — the 1 and a couple of seeds — get byes within the wild-card spherical. They subsequently play the 2 wild-card losers within the division collection, adopted by the league’s ultimate collection. (We couldn’t name it the championship collection, might we?) The loser there, after all, heads on to the Worst Sequence.

I simulated every playoff matchup 1,000 occasions, based mostly on the regular-season crew scores predicted by my laptop. The crew that misplaced nearly all of my simulations superior to the subsequent spherical.

TS, as you understand, is plotted on a 100-point scale. It’s decided by a system that offers equal weight to 4 elements: profitable share, the differential between runs scored and allowed per sport, the differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success.

Spoiler alert: The Washington Nationals might have to make some room of their trophy case.

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  • Kansas Metropolis Royals, 555 losses

  • Baltimore Orioles, 445 losses

  • Backside line: The Orioles are on the rise, as evidenced by their surprisingly sturdy 83-79 report final yr. They had been unable to match the Royals’ ineptitude.

  • Texas Rangers, 503 losses

  • Los Angeles Angels, 497 losses

  • Backside line: This was the tightest collection in all the event, with the Rangers advancing on the idea of six extra simulated losses.

  • Cincinnati Reds, 526 losses

  • Chicago Cubs, 474 losses

  • Backside line: The Cubs are rebuilding. The Reds are, properly, no person actually is aware of what they’re doing. Cincinnati had a transparent edge right here.

  • Colorado Rockies, 519 losses

  • Miami Marlins, 481 losses

  • Backside line: Two perennial bottom-dwellers confronted off on this collection, with the Rockies exhibiting barely extra incompetence.

A whole rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to return

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  • Detroit Tigers, 543 losses

  • Kansas Metropolis Royals, 457 losses

  • Backside line: On to the second spherical. The Tigers haven’t performed .500 ball since 2016. Nor have the Royals. However Detroit clearly was the worst membership on this matchup.

  • Oakland Athletics, 556 losses

  • Texas Rangers, 444 losses

  • Backside line: The A’s slipped right into a freefall final season, dropping 102 video games after 4 straight years above .500. They continued their dropping methods right here.

  • Washington Nationals, 513 losses

  • Cincinnati Reds, 487 losses

  • Backside line: Bear in mind when the Nationals gained the World Sequence simply 4 years in the past? Occasions have actually modified. Washington performed this collection tight, however finally got here out on the quick finish in opposition to the Reds.

  • Pittsburgh Pirates, 527 losses

  • Colorado Rockies, 473 losses

  • Backside line: The Pirates are skilled losers, reaching triple digits within the L column the previous two seasons. The Rockies had been no match for them right here.

Learn concerning the Corridor of Fame’s checkered historical past (and unsure future)

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  • Detroit Tigers, 507 losses

  • Oakland Athletics, 493 losses

  • Backside line: This inverse of the ALCS was tightly fought, with the Tigers asserting their lack of dominance ultimately. Detroit moved on to the Worst Sequence.

  • Washington Nationals, 543 losses

  • Pittsburgh Pirates, 457 losses

  • Backside line: The Nationals had been surprisingly combative within the earlier spherical, however they dissipated their vitality right here. The magnitude of Washington’s loss to Pittsburgh was surprisingly massive.

  • Washington Nationals, 521 losses

  • Detroit Tigers, 479 losses

  • Backside line: Right here it’s, the dream matchup of the worst groups in each leagues. Washington entered the Worst Sequence with a higher quantity of reverse momentum, based mostly on final yr’s 55-107 report. (Detroit was significantly higher in 2022 at 66-96.) The Nationals misplaced 521 of the 1,000 simulated collection to take the crown.

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